Spot market transactions recovered somewhat in the afternoon yesterday, SHFE tin prices opened higher in the night session and hovered at highs [SMM Tin Morning Brief]

SMM Tin Morning Brief on October 29, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2511) opened higher in the night session and hovered at highs, closing at 286,460 yuan/mt, up 0.56% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) Nvidia (NVDA.O) shares extended gains to 6% in afternoon US trading, pushing the AI chip giant's market capitalization above $4.9 trillion for the first time. The rise was driven by several new cooperation agreements and a strong market response to CEO Jensen Huang's speech at the GTC conference in Washington. In terms of news, Nvidia partnered with pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly to jointly build the most powerful supercomputer in the medical field to accelerate new drug R&D. Huang unveiled the new NVQLink interconnect system, enabling efficient connection between quantum processors and AI supercomputers. He stated, "NVQLink is the 'Rosetta Stone' connecting quantum and classical supercomputers." Nvidia will collaborate with the US Department of Energy (DOE) to build seven new-type artificial intelligence supercomputers. The company will also invest $1 billion in Nokia for AI cooperation. Upon completion of the transaction, Nvidia will hold a 2.9% stake in the telecom company. Additionally, Huang dismissed talk of an AI bubble. (2) Nvidia (NVDA.O) CEO Jensen Huang on Tuesday dismissed concerns about an artificial intelligence bubble, stating that the company's latest chips would generate $500 billion in revenue over the next five quarters. At the GTC conference in Washington, Huang noted that the Blackwell processor and the next-generation Rubin model were driving unprecedented sales growth. The conference highlighted the company's collaborations with enterprises such as Uber, Palantir, and CrowdStrike to integrate AI into various products. Nvidia also introduced a new system connecting quantum computers with AI chips. "We have reached a tipping point in a virtuous cycle," Huang told thousands of attendees at the convention center near the White House, "This is truly extraordinary." The core of Huang's speech focused on the AI industry's tipping point, arguing that current AI models are powerful enough for customers to pay for their use, which would justify expensive computing infrastructure investments. This view alleviated market concerns about an AI investment bubble, pushing Nvidia shares up more than 5% on Tuesday, with the stock price surpassing $200 for the first time. (3) According to US media reports on Tuesday citing Tesla (TSLA.O) board chair remarks, if Musk's $100 billion compensation package fails to pass at next week's annual shareholder meeting, Tesla has begun considering internal CEO succession candidates. Board Chair Robyn Denholm on Monday urged shareholders to vote in favor of the CEO compensation package, hoping to retain Musk at the helm as the company strategically transitions into autonomous driving technology and bionic robotics. This underscores Musk's irreplaceable core position in Tesla's corporate image and investor confidence, even as the company faces pressure to reduce its reliance on him. The proposed compensation plan would set 12 equity incentive thresholds for Musk, with targets including increasing the company's market value to $8.5 trillion and achieving significant technological breakthroughs in autonomous driving and robotics. The departure of several executives in recent years has left Tesla with a shallow management bench, and current CFO Vaibhav Taneja and Senior Vice President of Automotive Zhu Xiaotong have become the most critical executives aside from Musk.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply from major production areas like Yunnan is tightening. By October, maintenance shutdowns at some smelters had largely concluded, and most smelters in Yunnan were operating steadily. (2) Demand: Orders have significantly decreased due to weak demand in consumer electronics and home appliances. Downstream purchases are cautious, and high prices are clearly suppressing actual consumption. Limited boost from emerging sectors: Although increased AI computing power and growing PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in traditional sectors.

Spot market: Spot market transactions have recovered somewhat. Some downstream and end-user enterprises conducted minor restocking when tin prices fell yesterday afternoon. Some traders made deals for about one truckload, while a few traded more than one truckload.

[Data source statement: Apart from publicly available information, other data is derived from public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and not intended as decision-making advice. The provided information is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely on this to replace independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to Shanghai Metals Market]